A recent survey has revealed that 81% of councils are projected to overspend their adult social care budgets by March 2025, marking the highest level of overspending on record. The trend has worsened over the past three years, rising from 63% in 2022/23 to 72% in 2023/24. Conducted by the Association of Directors of Adult Social Services (Adass), the survey captures responses from 131 councils in England with social care responsibilities but does not account for the financial pressures of the Autumn Budget.

Increases in the National Living Wage and National Insurance contributions, announced in the Budget, are expected to exacerbate financial challenges for councils and care providers. Care England, representing adult care providers, has warned that these cost hikes could lead to care home closures, prompting calls for social care exemptions from National Insurance increases. Mencap’s Executive Director, Jackie O’Sullivan, criticised the £600 million sector funding as insufficient, with estimates suggesting double that amount is needed to meet rising costs.

The survey also highlighted a growing need for in-year savings, with 35% of councils required to make cuts, compared to 19% last year. Planned savings for 2025/26 have surged to £1.4 billion, raising concerns about the ability to invest in workforce, prevention, and unpaid carers. Adass President Melanie Williams described the sector as being at "breaking point."

The financial strain is particularly worrying for vulnerable people reliant on social care. O’Sullivan stressed that without urgent action, care workers, already struggling on low wages, will bear the brunt, with people with learning disabilities feeling the greatest impact. Adass and care charities are urging the government to collaborate on sustainable funding solutions to address the worsening crisis.